Add production eCPS baseline resolver with integrity gate#1164
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MaxGhenis wants to merge 4 commits into
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Add production eCPS baseline resolver with integrity gate#1164MaxGhenis wants to merge 4 commits into
MaxGhenis wants to merge 4 commits into
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Anything comparing against "the eCPS" (microplex, audits, replacement diagnostics) could silently use a stale or broken *local* enhanced_cps_2024.h5. This adds policyengine_us_data.utils.production_baseline so the canonical production baseline is always resolved the same way: - resolve_production_ecps() fetches the HF-published enhanced CPS pinned to the installed package version (uploads tag the HF commit with the version) into the local HF cache, and returns the path plus provenance (repo, revision, sha256, checks). - assert_baseline_intact() fails loudly if a required column is missing or all-zero -- the recurring failure mode, most recently the extended-CPS step dropping social_security_retirement, which left a comparison baseline 64% short on total Social Security. - `python -m policyengine_us_data.utils.production_baseline` and `make production-ecps` print the verified path or full JSON provenance. Tests cover the gate (pass, missing column, all-zero column, period-keyed groups) and the resolver with a mocked download. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Only social_security_retirement was guarded; a build dropping disability, survivors, or dependents (as the extended-CPS step once dropped retirement) would still publish an eCPS that under-counts Social Security. Require all four components to be present and non-zero. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Gate only the robustly-populated Social Security components (retirement and
disability). survivors/dependents are sparse and stay zero under the
imputation fallback (_age_heuristic_ss_shares), so hard-gating them could
reject legitimate builds.
- Align the upload validator to {retirement, disability} and correct its
comment: REQUIRED_VARIABLES_BY_FILENAME is checked for presence/length, not
non-zero.
- Clarify that the recorded sha256 is provenance only -- byte integrity is
already guaranteed by hf_hub_download against the Hub hash; the gate checks
column content.
- Wrap an unpublished/missing HF revision in a clear BaselineIntegrityError
(pointing at the version override) instead of an opaque Hub traceback, with a
regression test.
- Default the gate tests to the period-keyed-group layout real files use, keep
a flat-dataset case, and rename the changelog fragment to match the PR (1164).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Never read or sum weight arrays directly, and never report unweighted record counts or raw column sums as population figures. Compute population aggregates via Microsimulation (microdf auto-weights with the household weight); if a weight must be referenced at all, it is household_weight only. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Fixes #1163
Summary
Adds a production eCPS baseline resolver so anything comparing against "the eCPS" always uses the same verified, pinned production dataset instead of whatever local
enhanced_cps_2024.h5happens to be on disk.policyengine_us_data/utils/production_baseline.py:resolve_production_ecps(version=None)— fetches the HF-publishedenhanced_cps_2024.h5pinned to the installedpolicyengine-us-dataversion (uploads tag the HF commit with the version) into the local Hugging Face cache, and returns the path plus provenance (repo,revision,sha256, integritychecks).assert_baseline_intact(path, required_nonzero_columns=...)— fails loudly withBaselineIntegrityErrorif a required column is missing or all-zero. Defaults to the four Social Security components +employment_income_before_lsr.python -m policyengine_us_data.utils.production_baseline [--json];make production-ecps.Why
A local rebuild's
enhanced_cps_2024.h5recently lostsocial_security_retirement(dropped at the extended-CPS step), leaving a comparison baseline ~64% short on total Social Security and 100% short on SS retirement. A diagnostic then scored a candidate dataset as "winning" on Social Security purely because the baseline was broken. The published production eCPS for that same version is intact — only the local copy was broken. This change turns that silent failure mode into a hard error and gives every consumer one verified, pinned way to resolve the baseline.Testing
tests/unit/utils/test_production_baseline.py: the integrity gate passes on a healthy dataset; raises on a missing column, an all-zero column (the exact recurring bug), and handles period-keyed groups; the resolver returns provenance and propagates integrity failures (Hugging Face download mocked — no network).enhanced_cps_2024.h5and the gate passed (all four SS components non-zero).ruff format --check,ruff check, andscripts/run_quality_guards.pypass.Opening as draft per repo convention.
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